Economists crunch all manner of data and hunches in their efforts to divine the strength and trajectory of the nation’s financial resources. Like meteorologists staring at computers screens before going outside to hold a finger in the air, economists are sometimes right sometimes not so much.
Nine economic observers recently told the New York Times about the everyday indicators that check and balance their assessments of the official numbers. Here are six of them:
Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, Global Insight, evaluates the quality of service at restaurants.
His hypothesis: When restaurant service improves, unemployment is rising.
Rebecca M. Blank, Dean of the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan watches gas prices.
Her hypothesis: Consumers feel the pinch of high fuel costs long before any rise in the price of durable goods.
David Brancaccio, host of Now (PBS) and author of Squandering Aimlessly, tracks the size of the pile of socket wrench heads in the pawn shop on the main drag in Greenville, Michigan.
His hypothesis: A larger pile means workers in this Rust Belt town have fallen on hard times or else moved on and pawned their tools. A smaller pile means people who work with wrenches are, presumably, working with wrenches.
Michael J. Donnelly Jr., Senior Economist at Global Insight, looks for wide differences in the price of gas.
His hypothesis: A wide variation in prices from outlet to outlet, suggests that consumers are comfortable enough to value convenience over price per gallon.
Claudia Goldin, Professor of Economics at Harvard, monitors the cost of keeping a snow-free driveway.
Her hypothesis: Rising prices snow removal indicate high gasoline costs that will seep into the rest of the economy
Alan B. Krueger, Professor of Economics at Princeton, tracks "For Sale" signs.
His hypothesis: The cost of a barrel of oil is easy to monitor, but data on how long it takes to sell a home, and the percentage of the original asking price paid, lies at a level below what’s available to economists (do we smell another index opportunity here?).



