At 35,000 feet on the way to the East Coast recently, I settled into a cabin with decidedly more overhead bin space than a few months ago. Air travel has settling into a new rhythm of changes since the terrorist plot was foiled in London.
Reflecting on the past months has only made me more concerned about the state of our society, its organizations, and us. The social, organizational, and personal adjustments made in the last months are examples of what will have to become social, organizational and personal capabilities in this new world of risk and uncertainty.
Solomon, in his wisdom, said that the prudent man sees the danger ahead and prepares for it. How prepared is your organization, or you, for that matter? Are we socially, organizationally, and personally prepared for a world of heightened risk?
The times are risky. And I believe that we have moved from an era of planning to an era of preparedness. Rather than formulas, we need foundations in our lives, organizations, and society that can withstand the winds and storms.
On a social level, we cannot ever again expect stability and peace. The once unthinkable and unexpected has happened. What we now live with is the unpredictability of when it will happen again…be it terrorist attacks or hurricanes. We might enjoy periods of rest, but never permanently. It is the reality of a new level of risk that must be expected. And it is a false hope for political leaders to claim that they can achieve it. And it is foolish for them to claim that it can be attained by their ability to manage world affairs through negotiation or diplomacy or economic aid. We cannot manage these risks away. Things are happening that we cannot control. We can only prepare for them.
Is your organization prepared for the new world of risk? On an organizational level, we must understand that we cannot predict and then plan for the future. Much of organizational leadership and business strategy has historically been rooted in the assumption that the future is knowable, that our leaders know what is coming and know what to do. Forecasts are made based upon historical data and performance. Stocks are picked and strategies are cast based upon this premise. People are trained in corporations for the knowledge and ability to execute these strategies. We expect the military to plan and execute on a mission with exact timelines when the reality is that they face an enemy that is continuously morphing in its strategies and tactics. Though aspects of the future might be knowable, they are not predictable. And our strategies, decisions, training, and organizational capabilities seem increasingly incapable of making the sharp adjustments required by the new context.
Was the terrorist plot stopped because the nature of their attack was predicted? No. The strategic intent of the threats was to attack according to what we hadn’t planned for. It was stopped because the appropriate organizations had developed capabilities that prepared them to see, understand, and respond.
Even the airports were less chaotic than after 9/11 because security capabilities that were not present then were in place now. It enabled a much better ability to adjust to a new threat on the fly with minimum of disruption.
In my work as a senior leadership advisor, I constantly observe companies that are still tied to a prediction and planning approach to strategy. I’m not against prediction and planning. But the reality is that we cannot predict, and we must be willing to adapt, even scrap our plans at times. What will hurt our companies will be the things that are not predictable. And the threats will not just be terrorists, but also competitors, industry shifts, industry deaths, global labor and capital markets, and emerging economic powers that we never before imagined. These will impact not just the very large multinational firms, but even very local small American businesses.
By all means study the world around you. Observe what is going on and what is hurtling at your business. But even as you do, make it an increasing priority to build organizational capabilities and culture that are highly adaptive, responsive, and resilient. Our organizations must be able to shift from concretely fixed outcomes to respond to the shifts and challenges around us. Is your organization tethered to the assumptions of past realities? Do your organization’s capabilities serve a reality that is waning or a future that is emerging? Are you locked on to a plan that no longer fits the world around you?
As an investor looking to mitigate risk or as potential employee looking to work where the prospects of a future are more solid, you might look at the capabilities and adaptability of the company as well as the resiliency of the culture as a better indicator of its future than just its past performance or its highly touted plans.
On a personal level, it’s never been more important to be continually learning and developing your own unique capabilities, and your own ability to create value. Traditional career paths depend upon predictions and plans based on narrow assumptions about what skills you need and what jobs will be there for you. The organizations that you are counting on will probably not be resilient enough to survive for long. Understand that you will be flying solo more than you might have hoped, and that you will need to become more self-sustaining.
And as a parent, don’t let an education get in the way of helping your kids become lifelong learners. With two children in college, I’ve observed that the education that they are receiving is not adequate preparation for the world they are entering. So what I’m learning as a parent is that I must help them identify and develop their talents. I must help them develop a global mindset and a biblical mindset. I must help them develop the character and discernment that will enable decision-making in a world in flux. I can’t and won’t train them to just get a job but to innovatively create value. An entrepreneurial spirit is a must. And above all, I must encourage them to live out their faith and to feel the responsibility of being citizens of the Kingdom of God at this time in history.
The exciting opportunities of a “flat world” come with new risks. You will take your “hits” but you can respond and act if you develop the character and capabilities that enable you to be resilient, resourceful, and adaptive.
Are you prepared for the new world of risk?
Comments (6)
World of Risk
Risk, decision making, and frankly, worrying about the future have been in the front of my mind lately. In fact, my journal entry from last night revolved around Matthew 6:33-34 which are the verses that talk about pursuing God’s kingdom and not worrying about tomorrow. I’ve worked through Gary Friessen’s book, Decision Making and the Will of God, and now I am working through Blackaby’s Experiencing God, which takes a different approach. Each has challenged me. The tension I experience is finding the balance between being proactive and doing the things I think I need to do to be prepared (often motivated by worrying about the future)and trusting God (without having a revealed, detailed plan).
World of risk part 2
With regards to being prepared for the risks and threats, specifically to our business, our company is currently working on a dissaster recovery/business continuation plan. After 40 years in business, it is actually the IT department that is finally driving this. It doesn’t just entail data backup, it involves all facets of the business. It just happens that the IT discussion led to other things. I have found that the IT group tends to be the group that facilitates process analysis and documentation. We also tend to see IT driving change. The work habits and learning styles of the IT group are quite interesting in comparison to other work groups…but I will save that for another post.
Balancing Preparation and Trust
Very good points and questions with lots of dimensions!
As I reflected on your thoughts and this issue some more today, I was really struck by how much we are exhorted to prepare in the scriptures, and how many examples of preparation there are. I think of Ephesians 2:10 that God prepared good works for us to do. Now it’s up to us to prepare to be able to do them. David prepared his sling shot skills not knowing he would bring down Goliath…definitely a situation where preparation and faith brought about victory. In I Chronicles 12:33 David’s men were prepared and experienced men. And there are so many passages in Proverbs such as 6:8, 21:31, and 24:27 that exhort us to prepare. It seems to me that a definition of faith might be "tension". Faith is the meeting point of my preparation and God’s ability. In the final analysis, it is God’s grace and ability that make it possible, but it seems that my faith response to Him is to be ready. Being prepared is an act of prudence. Worry seems to hit me when I prepare and feel that I’m all alone in the process.
I think we are not in "faith" when we err by either believing that we don’t need to do anything and God will take care of it (this is presumption) or we feel that it is all up to us alone (this is pride). Two twin truths seem to relate to this. God is much more sovereign and powerful than we ever imagine. And we have much more freedom and partnership with Him than we imagine.
In Jeremiah 29:11-13, we are told that God has the plans. But the exhortation that follows is not that we should seek the plan, but Him, the Planner. That’s a part of the tension for me. That my trust needs to be in the Planner, not my knowledge of a plan. If I knew His plan even, I might then follow the plan rather than Him.
Thanks for getting me thinking about this.
Disaster Recovery and Threats
Very good work that you are doing to be working through the recovery and continuity plan. I’m surprised as I consult with organizations how few have gone through this process. Especially missing is a leadership continuity plan. I feel that there need to be two kinds to develop. The first is the emergency succession plan…What needs to be done legally, organizationally, financially, and business-wise if there is the sudden loss of key people like an owner! The second is longer term and is the development of a ownership and management succession plan.
The emergency plan might also take into account business related disasters such as the sudden loss of a major, major client. One of my clients recently faced such a prospect. Due to no fault of their own, the sudden and unannounced misfortune of one of their biggest clients almost took them down. Thankfully, they developed a rapid response to their other clients, their financial institutions, and their employees that enabled them to hold on and pull out. The plan, which was a very day by day process, coupled with a lot of prayer helped them to not panic but to do what they could each day.
Related to this is something that hit me very sharply after the last few years of hurricane disasters. I was consulting with various construction companies and interacting with industry leaders when it occurred to me that certain key industries needed to have industry contingency plans so that the industry could quickly collaborate and be activated to respond to disasters. There is a need for various industries to be convening industry roundtables o to work through some of these matters.
Preparation out of Fear?
I keep running into that tension of worry and trust.
Something I have been thinking is that we can perform any action with either attitude. E.g., I can store away my retirement money with an attitude of self-reliance (*I* have to ensure my future) and a hovering fear (I won’t have enough), or I can store away my retirement with an attitude of trust (I’ll do what I can and what is reasonable, but in the end, I’m at God’s mercy). My external actions might look identical in both cases.
But I’m not totally sure about this…what do you guys think?
Preparation out of fear
I understand what you are saying about your choice in attitude regarding uncertainty. I have had times when I had a very strong attitude of trust. Sheepishly, I will admit that it was kind of forced on me. One of my daughters spent several months in the ICU clinging to life. There was not a single tangible thing I could do to help her or effect the outcome. I was "forced" to trust. It actually ended up being a pivotal experience in my walk. Even with this experience under my belt, I have to make a conscious decision to trust and I really fight the pull of not trusting. It is not so much that I decide not to trust, but the fact that I worry even when I’ve decided to trust.