Historians tend to focus on the reasons for success. Their fascination is with victory, and although a lot has been written about why losses occur, most historical tracts address the reasons that one side won. Winners, after all, write the histories. Yet it's interesting and important to think about military failures - particularly when we are flush with victory ... There seems to be a common historical thread running through many of the greatest military losses. Those losses in great part stem from an arrogance that begets ignorance - an ignorance of facts and developments that others are quicker to see.

... there are common causes for military disasters, and at the heart of them lie dangerous smugness, institutional constraints on innovation, and the tendency to avoid questioning conventional wisdom. And the side that is the most smug, the most convinced that its interpretation of the past is the best guide for the future, often turns out to be the loser in the next war.